Bitwise Analyst Sees Pandemic-Level Gains in Bitcoin

In the last month, Bitcoin fell more than 17% and briefly fell below $90,000.
The market has already taken into account a lot of bad news, like the possibility of a recession.
If the world economy picks up, the upside could be huge, like after COVID.
Dragosch calls it a “asymmetric risk-reward,” which means that the downside is small but the upside is big.
In 2020, Bitcoin dropped below $5,000 but then rose six times by the end of the year.

This is probably the most important work I’ve done on #Bitcoin & Macro so far.

It involves a lot of computation and is somewhat complex – because financial markets are complex at the end of the day.

The question investors constantly face is:

“𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝗱 𝗶𝗻… pic.twitter.com/TUaFGM5SAT
— André Dragosch, PhD⚡ (@Andre_Dragosch) November 28, 2025

Bitcoin has gone down recently, but one expert thinks it has a lot of potential in the future. André Dragosch, who is in charge of research at Bitwise Europe, says that the way the cryptocurrency is set up now is similar to how it was during the tense days of the COVID-19 outbreak in 2020. Prices fell sharply, but then they rose sharply again. Now, the same things might be happening.

Dragosch wrote a long X post to share his thoughts. He said that Bitcoin is pricing in the worst growth outlook since the tight money policies of 2022, the FTX collapse, or even the pandemic shock of 2020. He wrote, “Bitcoin is basically pricing in a growth environment that is going to lead to a recession.” This means that a lot of the bad things that have happened, like the recent sell-offs caused by talks about U.S. tariffs, are already built into the price.

“The last time I saw such an uneven risk-reward was during Covid,” he said. He posted a chart that showed how Bitcoin’s implied growth expectations have dropped sharply, creating a “coiled spring” effect. Dragosch thinks that past global monetary easing will lead to growth through 2026, which will set up Bitcoin for a big rebound.

In early October 2025, Bitcoin hit its highest point at $125,100, but it fell after President Trump’s plans to raise tariffs on China caused a huge $19 billion liquidation event. It tested $90,000 support levels by the middle of November. But buyers jumped in quickly, which shows strength.

Others agree that things are looking up. Alessio Rastani, a trader, says that this pattern has led to rallies 75% of the time in the past. Tom Lee from BitMine thinks that Bitcoin will reach $100,000 again by the end of 2025. Scott Bessent, who is in charge of the U.S. Treasury, also downplays fears of a recession in 2026.